IRAN DEADLINE - AT 11:09 P.M. ET:  White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs reiterated today that Iran has only until the end of this month to show progress in nuclear talks with the West. 

That's boilerplate tough talk, but what precisely will happen at the end of the month?  The United States has been hinting at stronger sanctions, even "crippling" sanctions, to cite Hillary Clinton's language.  But that would require action by the UN Security Council.  China, which has veto power, has already said that it's opposed to further sanctions.  There's been some optimism about the Russians...until today, when Vladimir Putin said that Russia had no proof that Iran was seeking nuclear weapons.  Not a great moment for our side.

The president was barely able to make a decision on Afghanistan.  In the absence of agreement on firmer sanctions, Iran will be much harder.  At least the Afghan government is formally on our side, as is the Iraqi government.  The Iranian regime is one of the most hostile in the world. 

If sanctions fail, or cannot be enhanced, there remain very few options, one of them being an application of military power.  This could take the form of a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities - those that we know about - or could involve a naval blockade, or even commando raids. 

But would Obama, tied down in Afghanistan, have the stomach?  Could we take on another Muslim country, even one whose engineering progress threatens us? 

And what will the Israelis, who feel their existence threatened, do in the face of Western weakness?

Those are 2010 questions.  Add them to the 2010 midterms, and we have quite a year coming up.

December 3, 2009